America’s struggling wine industry took a big hit in 2025, and the scope of the losses just became clear.

In 2025 the U.S. wine exports plummeted 33.5 percent compared to 2024, driven largely by a 76.8 percent drop to its largest market, Canada, according to new data just released by the U.S. Census Bureau. In total, American wine exports fell from $1.3 billion in 2024 to $850 million this past year, a $428 million loss.

Now, the data gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau doesn’t differentiate between entry-level and premium wines, but these market segments may be feeling the effects of the export drops differently. “In general, the downturn in the wine industry has had a far more detrimental effect on entry level wine,” says Carlton McCoy, CEO of Lawrence Wine Estates. “With that said, no price point has been completely immune to the current market conditions.”

Some wineries told Robb Report that because their model is more reliant on direct-to-consumer sales and allocations, they haven’t felt the pain that other brands have. “Because how much we sell DTC and have seen huge growth in wholesale domestically, our exports are a very small fraction of our total volume,” says Jesse Katz, founder and winemaker of Aperture Cellars. “All our export partners have taken all allocations we have given them, so we have seen no change.”

But for wineries feeling the pinch, the export slump is most acute with Canada because of tensions between America and its neighbor to the north that began not long after President Trump took office last year. While the administration’s new tariff regime sparked a trade war that has some Canadian provinces banning American alcohol, it was the president’s remarks about making Canada a 51st state—which has since been walked back by administration officials—that really riled up the country. In response, a “buy local” movement emerged in Canada that encouraged people to not purchase goods from America. “This situation is a combination of recent happenings in global trade policies as well as a generally negative sentiment of any products made in the U.S., not just wine,” says McCoy, whose company owns legendary wineries like Heitz and Burgess.

And Canadians have really followed through on their promise not to buy American wine, with only two provinces—Alberta and Saskatchewan—actually allowing bottles from the U.S to be sold at all. In May and June of last 2024, Canadians imported $34 million and $32 million worth of wine from the U.S., respectively. In May of 2025, that number fell to a staggering $961,084, while June was an equally paltry $1 million. Late in the year, the losses weren’t as severe, but November’s year-over-year exports to Canada fell 82.3 percent, from $54 million to $9.5 million, and December dropped 79.8 percent year over year.

That slight clawback still isn’t enough though to really help American winemakers. “We will need the remainder of the country to open up for it to have a truly material positive impact,” McCoy says. But the CEO of Lawrence Wine Estates sees that importers are remaining engaged and optimistic about the market bouncing back. With the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs on Friday, there may be an opportunity for trade tensions around the world to ease.