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Close your eyes and picture a Rolex. There’s a good chance you’re thinking of the Rolex GMT-Master II “Pepsi,” most likely in steel.

That’s because, along with the steel Daytona and steel Submariner, the steel Pepsi “is one of the most popular models Rolex has ever made,” Paul Altieri, CEO of Bob’s Watches, tells Robb Report. “It’s in its own category because it has such a special look and it’s been around for 70 years.”

Or should we say was around? According to widespread reports, the modern steel version, ref. 126710BLRO, introduced in 2018, has been discontinued. We reached out to the brand but, so far, have not received a confirmation or denial. As of this writing, Rolex.com still offers a 40 mm GMT-Master II in Oystersteel with a red and blue Cerachrom ceramic bezel, for $11,800 on its watch configurator. But check the websites of some the brand’s authorized dealers—C.D. Peacock and London Jewelers, for example—and the reference is nowhere to be found.

What does that spell for the model’s secondary market value, currently hovering between $19,000 and $24,000? Before we get there, it’s worth noting that the distinctive model was a posterchild of the speculative frenzy that consumed the luxury watch market during the pandemic.

“The Pepsi has had one of the most volatile and closely watched trajectories in the modern Rolex market,” Giovanni Prigigallo, cofounder and head of business development at EveryWatch, says. “It exploded during the 2020 boom, with auction prices peaking around $36,000 before correcting sharply as the broader steel sports market cooled. What’s interesting is how consistently the model has reacted to discontinuation rumors, as in March 2022 with a super strong reaction and deflation, and again in 2023, 2024, and 2025, we saw smaller but clear price bumps ahead of Watches and Wonders whenever speculation surfaced.

“Now that discontinuation news appears credible, prices have moved decisively,” Prigigallo adds. “Dealer values are up more than $1,200 in the last month alone. This isn’t 2020-style speculation but more of a reaction to the discontinuation news. What happens next depends entirely on what Rolex launches. If a ceramic ‘Coke’ replaces it and is well received, the Pepsi likely settles at a higher but stable level. If the successor disappoints, the Pepsi could reprice more aggressively as the last modern steel red-and-blue GMT.” 

For Joshua Ganjei, CEO of European Watch Company, the rumors and subsequent market reaction underscore “just how important that watch is,” he says. “This isn’t just another steel sports reference—it’s a cornerstone of the modern Rolex market. In recent years, the brand has shown a greater willingness to take calculated risks with their catalog. We saw that with the introduction of the left-handed Rolex GMT-Master II ‘Sprite’ and Land Dweller which proved they’re comfortable disrupting expectations.

“If the Pepsi is discontinued, we’d expect immediate upward pressure in the secondary market,” Ganjei adds. “Collectors don’t hesitate when a blue-chip model looks vulnerable and the Pepsi blends heritage and everyday wearability in a way few watches do, so even the possibility of its exit would energize demand.”

Tim Bender, founder and CEO of the pre-owned watch platform Collected, has already noticed market grumblings. “While not officially confirmed yet, the market seems to be pricing in the discontinuation,” he says. “New full-set examples, on Jubilee, were trading around $24,000 last month,” he says. “I’m now seeing asks around $26,000 to $27,000 through my wholesale network.”

Bender, however, sees any bump in prices as purely temporary.

“My take: the spike won’t last,” he says. “This isn’t the market of three to four years ago. Many speculative buyers were burned during the peak frenzy (and subsequent crash) and never returned. Speculative demand is a shadow of its former self. Add the fact that Rolex produced many thousands of these over eight years, and there’s simply too much supply chasing too little enthusiasm. I’d expect prices to settle back into the low $20s once the dust clears.”

Eric Wind, the owner of Wind Vintage in Palm Beach, Fla., cautions that from Rolex’s perspective, the Pepsi is alive and well—just not in steel.

“The Pepsi bezel originally returned only for the white gold model and surprised the watch community when Rolex brought it to the steel models—plus irritated those who had paid huge sums of money to buy it in white gold only to see it come back in steel at a considerably lower retail price,” Wind says.

“I would expect values for the steel models with ‘Pepsi’ bezels to increase on the pre-owned market,” he adds. “We sold a steel version last week with a Jubilee bracelet from 2019 for $22,000 and I probably should have asked a bit more, but such is life! I also expect the values for the white gold examples, which have been very low compared to the retail price, to increase a bit with this news.” As with all things Rolex, there are more questions than answers. “Does the black and red ‘Coke’ make a comeback?” Ganjei says. “Do they expand the Sprite lineup? Rolex loves to keep collectors guessing—and they do it better than almost anyone else!”