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We’re at T-minus seven days and counting until the opening of Watches and Wonders at the Palexpo convention center in Geneva on April 14. Have you placed your bets on which models will be introduced and/or discontinued? We mean that literally. Now, thanks to the recent partnership between the online pre-owned marketplace Bezel and the prediction market platform Kalshi, you can actually wager money on how the watch market behaves (with the caveat that we’re mostly talking about Rolex).
On a recent call with Bezel cofounder and CEO Quaid Walker, he explained the rationale behind partnering with a betting platform. “It’s a behavior that already exists in the watch world where you have folks in forums that are speculating on what’s going to be discontinued,” he says. “You have folks that are coming to Bezel or other platforms to buy watches because they think they’re investible asset classes. And then you obviously have a set of watch collectors that buy and sell watches because they love watches and they don’t really care about treating them as an asset, but they want to make sure they’re getting the right market price.
“We think about it as a fun supplementary activity to an existing watch collecting experience,” he adds. “Not to spread even more speculation, but if I believe that the Pepsi is going to get discontinued by Rolex this year, and I’m really passionate about watches, I can talk about that. If I’m just getting into the watch journey and I feel like this is an interesting market for me, I can put a $5 bet on that happening. And it feels like I’m now part of the watch community.”
Right now, the community is buzzing about what Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet (which is showing in Geneva again following a seven-year hiatus), and other makers will unveil at Watches and Wonders—and the satellite events taking place across the city next week. To tap into that buzz, we asked Walker and a handful of watch experts to offer their educated guesses on what we can expect from the spectacle in Switzerland. Their remarks have been condensed and edited for clarity.
Quaid Walker, Cofounder and CEO, Bezel
“The two releases I’m most focused on heading into Geneva are the Nautilus 50th and whatever Rolex has planned for the GMT line. How Patek Philippe chooses to mark the anniversary will say a lot about where the brand is headed. They’ve spent the last few years repositioning the catalog, and my read is a precious metal piece with a serious complication, though personally I’d love to see them surprise everyone with steel.
“On the Rolex side, the current Pepsi reference has been allegedly disappearing from authorized dealers for months, and we’re already seeing prices move speculatively on the secondary market. Whether that means its days are numbered, or it’s being replaced by an all-new generation, pricing on the existing reference will move the moment the fair opens. That’s something we have a pretty clear view of from the Bezel side.”

Rolex’s Land-Dweller
Rolex
Douglas Kaplan, Chief Commercial Officer, Bob’s Watches
“If we’re talking about Rolex, the GMT-Master II with the Pepsi discontinuation is something to think about. But Rolex is a bit unpredictable and understands the scarcity could be what turns a collectible watch into an icon. I don’t think Rolex only works to satisfy demand—they work in more mysterious ways.
“On the Land-Dweller, we’ll see the introduction of some new materials, even yellow gold or a two-tone Rolesor. You know Rolex—new dial colors, a couple different diamond settings. But we also see them expanding the usage of that Dynapulse escapement platform—maybe it crosses into other collections?
“Since Cellini is no longer around, the 1908 is really the building block for Rolex dress watches, so adding a date or dual time or moonphase—something with a complication— might give it more relevance. A Jubilee bracelet on a Daytona would reframe the watch. Historically, the Daytona had rice bead-type bracelets, so why not?
“The Cartier Pasha—I think there’s something there. They’ve hinted at it a bit. Remember the old Pashas with the grills over top? Those were fun and unique—they had a boom in the past and that unique shape might be exciting to bring to people’s wrists.”
Giovanni Prigigallo, Cofounder and Head of Business Development, EveryWatch
“Rolex GMT-Master II ‘Coke’ bezel, new variants of dials in the Land-Dweller line, something fun around the Oyster Perpetual. I hope Patek will show the 50th anniversary Nautilus, which real collectors can’t wait to see and I believe it’ll be a minute repeater. I believe we will also see a lot of creativity from other brands as the market is getting tougher. My wish is for a smaller Octo Finissimo from Bulgari!”
Yoni Ben-Yehuda, Head of Watches, Material Good
“I believe Patek is going to come out with something super meaningful for the 50th anniversary of the Nautilus, but predicting Patek will do something extraordinary for the Nautilus is like predicting that water will be wet. Personally, I would love to see yellow gold brought back to the line.
“Obviously, the Crown continues to amaze. I saw some chatter online about an introduction of a moonphase and how they can incorporate that into the 1908 line. I thought last year’s platinum watch with the glacier-blue dial was just stunning; a complication this year would be extraordinary.
“It’s great that AP is showing at Watches and Wonders and contributing to the excitement of the community. The way in which they’re going to come back will, I think, surprise a lot of people. I predict the response to AP’s presence at Watches and Wonders will create lots of conversations.
“Another prediction is that when a lot of people at Watches and Wonders get hands on with the independents, it’s going to force the industry at large to reexamine the watch releases they do. Independent brands as a whole are putting the industry on notice.”

Patek’s Cubitus
Austen Chu, Founder and CEO, WristCheck
“I think Patek will probably introduce complications in the Cubitus line, as well as releasing a ‘50th anniversary’ Nautilus for its anniversary year. I think Rolex might discontinue the Pepsi and replace it with a new GMT (Coke, maybe), and hopefully reintroduce the Milgauss again—it’s such an underrated line! Maybe we’ll even see a platinum Le Mans Daytona, who knows!? Also keep an eye out for the independent brands showing around Geneva at that time, usually you see a lot of innovation from the indies!”
“As we head into Watches & Wonders 2026, the mood in Geneva is very different from the speculative frenzy of a few years ago. The people flying to Watches and Wonders now are buyers, and they’re hunting for character and long‑term value, not the next hype cycle. Brands are responding with smaller, more wearable cases, richer dials, and complications that are actually worn.”
“The rumors of Rolex sunsetting the GMT-Master II ‘Pepsi’ reference are already driving prices of Rolex sports models north. Overall, we are enjoying the current strength in the preowned market and will likely see clients and collectors looking for heritage references of the new models debuting in Geneva.
“Personally, I would love to see the ‘Coke’ reference come back. Aesthetically, it is slightly more wearable than the Pepsi (and since we are based in Atlanta, we root for Coca Cola, our home team).
“The Rolex Milgauss was recently discontinued and with its big 70th anniversary this year, we would like to see it back in the lineup. We sell them well at retail and I have always considered them a sleeper hit among Rolex sports model references.”
“With this year being the 100th anniversary of the Rolex Oyster Perpetual, I think we’ll see a lot on that front. Dare I dream of one in precious metal with an interesting dial?!”
“I think this year we’re going to see a really interesting split. From brands like Rolex I’m expecting a bit more playfulness, especially in the color direction—nothing too radical in terms of form but enough to get people talking. For most other brands, it feels like a year of refinement over reinvention with better finishing, tighter proportions, cases shaved down just slightly, everything feeling more considered and intentional—the kind of details that the average person might miss but that collectors will absolutely obsess over.
“I also have a feeling we’re going to see more vintage revivals and done properly. Cartier set the tone bringing back the Tank à Guichet last year and now it feels like other brands are ready to dig into their archives in a more serious way and give us reinterpretations that actually respect the originals! Overall, it feels like a year for the purist, but I’ll still be on the hunt for the unexpected, the bold designs, the slightly crazy pieces, and especially the métiers d’art because that’s where things always get interesting.”
“This is the most technically loaded Watches and Wonders in years. And with so many brands hitting anniversary milestones, I truly think you’ll see every single brand trying to go all out and separate themselves from the others. The Rolex Milgauss return is probably the most talked about. The Calibre 7135 Dynapulse [introduced in last year’s Land-Dweller] is inherently antimagnetic without a Faraday cage, so Rolex can ditch the 70-year-old iron shield and drop the case from 13mm to roughly 10mm. A 2025 patent for colored sapphire crystals points to the green Glace Verte coming back [in the Milgauss]. The Pepsi GMT is done. Many dealers have stopped receiving the 126710BLRO across markets, secondary prices are up $3,000 since January, and a 2022 patent for red-and-black ceramic means the Coke is next, likely white gold first.
“Patek’s Nautilus turns 50 but [president Thierry] Stern has ruled out a steel 5811. Expect platinum with a perpetual calendar, possibly limited to 1,976 pieces (similarly to what they did for the 40th anniversary). AP is one to watch for sure. Back after seven years during their 150th anniversary with 1,200 square meters at Palexpo and a new in-house caliber 6401 that could power a downsized Offshore Chronograph or something else . . . I’m sure they have something ridiculous planned.
“What’s notable about this edition is what’s happening outside the fair. Girard-Perregaux, Blancpain, and Louis Vuitton have all released watches leading up to W&W. None of those brands are on the exhibitor list. Some of the most technically ambitious complications of the year are being released completely outside the W&W framework, which says something about what brands are thinking and could be indicative of trends in the future. Swiss exports dipped 1.7 percent last year, the secondary market just turned positive after 13 quarters of decline, and case sizes keep shrinking (thankfully). Sixty-six brands and the Holy Trinity under one roof for the first time—this year should be quite interesting.”
“I’m particularly interested in some of the moves that have happened at the show and what the implications of those changes could be. H. Moser has been very clear about their pride in moving into a larger booth, a space that not only is larger in size but massive in statement. I’ll be paying close attention not only to their novelties, but how they will engage with the broader mainstream watch business that will be their neighbors at the show. Will they continue to be the rogue, or will they be looking to conform to more mass-market tastes as they look to scale their business?
“Similarly, Audemars Piguet have decided to return to the show. Whether this is a PR play or a first attempt at re-engaging with retailers after turning away from them five years ago remains to be seen. Zoomed out, it looks like this Watches and Wonders could present massive opportunity for change: growth for some brands, access for some retailers, and potentially shifting partnerships across the globe.”
Authors
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Victoria Gomelsky
Victoria Gomelsky is editor-in-chief of the jewelry trade publication JCK and a frequent contributor to the New York Times and Robb Report. Her freelance work has appeared in AFAR, WSJ Magazine, The…


